The pointers are many; life on earth cannot be sustained the same way endlessly. Our lives are based on development, constant and continuous development. It is very surprising that not many people realize that we are to hit the brim soon. While some predict that we are closing in on doomsday; some others see unhindered progress. It is very surprising that most of us do not see the logical picture of reverse development. If you are one among those who agree that constant development cannot continue forever, then you are picturing a scenario where life is ultimately affected. It is here that people diverge on their views. Some see doomsday when this normal life is affected and there doesn’t seem a way to get back on track.
However for our civilization, there is no such sudden unexpected hindrance. The hindrances crop up slowly and sequentially, proportionate to the unfolding situations. Such scenario when realized would evoke considerable interest, fear and speculation. This is one area which mankind has not seen, not experienced it, and never expected it earlier. There are plenty of opportunities for a standstill and negative growth. On the face of it, we see a starter question, ‘What if we have a recession and don’t recover from it?’. The pace of life today and the factors that sustain it are proportionally different from any point earlier. It should be understood here that there is no possibility for a doomsday arising from the activities of man.
As the activities close up on the threshold values, man would find it increasingly difficult to enforce his interests. Deterioration in situation would be evident in every field, which include depletion of natural resources with increasing dependence on them, environmental impact, deep entrenchment and stake of supply chain etc. He would be required to work more on his immediate and current activities that keep increasingly failing, rather than looking ahead. Thus stagnation is reached, which cannot be overcome. From here on it is only backward looking. From the viewpoint of philosophy, social and economy, it is only logical that man would survive on this planet forever, always in cycles of development and reverse development.
The role of R&D
Another worrying aspect that again reinforces the point that the world cannot keep progressing in this direction forever, is the vital arena of Research and Development. This R&D does not only cover forefront research, but also every innovative way which mankind take to establish a living. As the world population increases, people take to various means to sustain a living. This includes new professions, new product development, new product sales etc. These also include new desired but also undesired developments like innovative ways of cheating, forging, kidnapping and even murdering etc. which lead to a trend setting, with many followers. The R&D also encompasses the efforts taken by professions aimed at stopping and punishing these. Such comprehensive R&D efforts each day, serve as the basis for the sustenance of the economic growth.
The Research & Development has been acknowledged as vital for every sector, but R&D has not been recognized as a sector by itself. This has immense social implications, although its economic implications may not seem apparent. R&D as a sector by itself has a great sustaining effect in human development. The growth rate of any economy is based on such activity. That is for everybody to seek employment or to continue their employment; such diversified activity should always persist. In short the R&D activity is the basis of sustenance. The social role of R&D (which has not been largely recognized) is to keep performing to let the show go on. If for any reason the R&D activity is impaired or dysfunctions in any sector or several sectors, it can have a cascading effect. When new ways of making money stops, all begin to look backward at existing ways; and that is when the negative growth begins.
The role of economy
The recession that we have just seen only proves that our economic system equally facilitates negative growth too. Our economic system is predominantly driven by sentimental values which at times; are like a spark that can burn down everything. Recessions keep growing bigger and bigger, with increasing recovering periods. That is the next recession would have a bigger impact and for a longer time. Although recessions are followed by recovery, no one can deny that it is also possible for a recovery not coming through. Even such predictions in an increasingly free world will scare people into seeking cover.
Recessions can affect R&D activity and vice versa; and as long as R&D activity is held up, people keep looking backwards. The longer and deeper they keep going backwards into existing ways, the less likely are they to get back on track. The global economic system of today is immensely integrated, with plenty of opportunities for triggering a downfall. Most major countries are heavily laden with debts, the debts acquired in the normal course of administration and providing for its people. These countries have to repay debts even while needed to spend more. When together, all their financial instruments become valueless, chaos will reign.
The role of supply chain
The relevance and dependability of the supply chain is increasing by the day. The stake of disruption in the supply chain is more relevant today than at any other day. The supply chain is becoming too complex with diverse interests and requirements. With the increasing number of participants, perfect delivery and timely delivery is increasingly essential for things to be in normal. Any disruptive economic conditions, unavailability of material, labor unrest could affect the supply chain, which may not always be rectifiable. Also even if rectifiable, the delay associated with it too, can bring about a cascading affect.
Social revolt
Life is increasingly getting harder generally for a few sections of people across the globe. The rich poor divide in only increasing. When some have luxurious options in life, some others struggle for their basics. The law obedience and the social contract of these people with their respective governments are well abided as of now. However when basics like food and shelter become inaccessible, restlessness begin. Revolts to ensure access to food and shelter occur, which may not stop there. The philosophy that man is equal in birth and death would be redefined to include ‘and in life’. Social revolts in some countries, would inspire people in other countries which could jeopardize global stability.
Is ‘Miracle Age’ a reality?
This phase is perhaps the most important phase in the civilization of man, having reached the zenith of development, corresponding to sustainability threshold of earth. However as these developments occur over generations, at every point, looking backward would only seem logical. Developments in technology and allied steps would be considered as signs of backwardness since it cannot sustain life in the long run.
The civilization of man begins to take a reverse U-curve. One limb of the reverse ‘U’ which goes up, shows development, the phase we are currently in, which would ultimately reach a zenith. The environment corresponding to this stage deteriorates with our development. The other limb of the reverse ‘U’ which comes down indicates negative development, caused due to non-sustainability. The environment of the earth in this stage is gradually improved.
These however would be spread across generations and at all times the trend would be considered ‘forward looking’ The period corresponding to the curve of the reverse ‘U’ would be considered as the ‘Miracle Age’ of man.
