The decision of the US to withdraw forces from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 after 20 years was a decision well supported by the Americans. A Chicago Council survey conducted in July found that seven out of ten Americans supported the move. However, in just six days after the withdrawal, the Taliban had rapidly moved inside Afghanistan capturing eight provinces as the world watched in disbelief. The Taliban took province after province and at many places the Afghan army gave up without a fight. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and the national capital Kabul soon fell into the hands of Taliban without any fight. Taliban forces amassed a cache of arms and combat infra left behind by the US and the Afghan forces. It must be noted here that the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was originally planned and finalized by the Trump administration with the Taliban on February 29, 2020 to pull out troops by May 2021. That agreement document was interestingly titled, “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America.” The current troop withdrawal was subsequent to this agreement. The first point of the agreement emphasized that the Afghanistan soil shall not be used to threaten US security.
The fall of Afghan government raised eyebrows and criticism of the pullout including some from Trump himself. However, President Biden backed his withdrawal decision maintaining that the US went to Afghanistan in 2001 in American security and not for any nation building. While some fault the withdrawal plan, the truth of the matter is that there is no any possible withdrawal plan that could have produced a different outcome even in the next 20 years. The withdrawal had exposed the futility of the two-decade exercise. The sad truth laid bare was that the government itself was a sham or a ploy that could only breathe under the shadow of the US forces. The tenure is a testimony or a new chapter on the association of democracy in Islamic countries.
Afghanistan having come back to square one despite the immense efforts of the international community in the last two decades, is perhaps a fact that is too difficult to be reconciled with. The US and India in particular had been on the same page in Afghanistan, contributed immensely to the nation’s well-being and its future. In the first place how could the Taliban exist and even grow for 20 years in a world that branded them as terrorists. Like it or not, take it or not; the Taliban is now indispensable when it comes to political leadership in Afghanistan; with no feasible alternative.
The relative success of Islamic armed groups to aspire for political leadership is undoubtedly based on the reverence they receive from the populace. Their claim as religious or spiritual leaders interpreting religious rules into daily lives, deciding and punishing the unholy strikes a chord with the larger populace. However, at the day of reckoning panic strikes and there is desperation. This is akin to wartime patriotism that doesn’t exist at peace time. It is in this backdrop that 20 years have passed in Afghanistan with valuable lessons. There is a subconscious allure to religion and religious leadership that makes it difficult for people to reciprocate or even acknowledge the services of non-Muslims; which may not be forthcoming. Such armed groups when in power must match this reverence by guiding people in a fast-changing world, enabling them to be happy and content. Irony comes a full circle if they use this reverence to make them feel desperate.
So, what lies ahead for Afghanistan and the Taliban? Taliban must decide what kind of Afghanistan they want for tomorrow amidst tomorrow’s world. Despite adequate resources, a large part of the Muslim world is underdeveloped with high poverty levels. The Taliban’s biggest challenge now is to change its own mindset, compatible for a progressive nation. The agenda is no longer of consolidating power but that of development, wellbeing and prosperity of Afghanistan. Taliban must take cues from Islamic nations that are developed and contributing to a better world order, who shall desire and contribute to a prosperous Afghanistan.
Right now, Taliban has shown some credibility although there have been reports of its violence and abuse. They have expressed desire to inculcate discipline amongst its cadres and have condemned the suicide attacks at Kabul airport. It is important that they engage nations that matter and work with them in mutual interest. It needs to be seen how adamant they are to push their own agenda even against aspirations of millions of citizens and that of the international community. Obviously, no one has any problem with their agenda including implementation of strict Sharia, if that is democratically endorsed. Imposing strict Sharia with no inclination to conduct elections could be a sad signal.
As for the international community, this is a regime with a little understanding of the dynamics of contemporary public governance and welfare and international community. While they could have reasonable skepticism on the expectations of the international community, the regime could be very forthcoming with Islamic nations. On their part, it could be of considerable help if Islamic nations develop a consensual universal charter that aligns Islamic notions, at least to the minimum acceptability standards of the larger world. How it would turn out from here is anyone’s guess, but then there is always hope.
